Newton: From Certainty to Probability?

Probability and Certainty

Probability can be used to measure degree of belief in two ways: objectively and subjectively. The objective measure is a measure of the rational degree of belief in a proposition given a set of evidential propositions. The subjective measure is the measure of a particular subject’s dispositions to decide between options. In both measures, certainty is a degree of belief 1. I will show, however...

Probability without certainty

Like many discussions on the pros and cons of epistemic foundationalism, the debate between C.I. Lewis and H. Reichenbach dealt with three concerns: the existence of basic beliefs, their nature, and the way in which beliefs are related. In this paper we concentrate on the third matter, especially on Lewis’s assertion that a probability relation must depend on something that is certain, and Reic...

Isaac Newton on Mathematical Certainty and Method

From certainty factors to belief networks

The certainty-factor (CF) model is a commonly used method for managing uncertainty in rule-based systems. We review the history and mechanics of the CF model, and delineate precisely its theoretical and practical limitations. In addition, we examine the belief network, a representation that is similar to the CF model but that is grounded firmly in probability theory. We show that the belief-net...

Self-certainty: Parallels to Attitude Certainty

The purpose of this article is to apply theory and research on attitude certainty to the study of the self. Our main goal is to show that research on attitudes, and in particular attitude certainty, can provide useful insights into self-related phenomena. By considering research on attitudes, we may be able to re-interpret previous self-related findings, make new predictions regarding the self,...